Jakarta, en.SERU.co.id – The potential threat of the El Niño phenomenon has come under intense scrutiny following the emergence of the term “Godzilla” to describe its extreme intensity. Indonesia’s Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysical Agency (BMKG) has forecasted the possibility of its occurrence during the June–August 2026 period. Experts are urging early preparedness to mitigate impacts on the water, agriculture, and food sectors.
What Is El Niño ‘Godzilla’?
Meteorology and Geophysics Observer (PMG) from BMKG, Muhammad Hafizh Suwandi, explained that scientifically El Niño is categorized into three levels: weak, moderate, and strong. The term “Godzilla” originated from a study by BRIN, which links the possibility of a powerful combination between a positive ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD).
“In simple terms, El Niño occurs when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean become warmer than normal. Under normal conditions, trade winds push warm water toward the western region, including Indonesia, supporting cloud formation and rainfall,” Hafizh stated, as quoted from the BMKG website on Friday, April 3, 2026.
He added that during El Niño, these winds weaken. Warm water shifts toward the central and eastern Pacific, causing the center of cloud formation to move away from Indonesia. As a result, rainfall in Indonesia decreases, and the dry season tends to be drier and longer.
“According to the NOAA outlook as of March 12, 2026, ENSO conditions are expected to persist until May–July 2026. The probability of El Niño increases to around 62 percent during the June–August 2026 period. This means the El Niño threat remains a possibility rather than a certainty,” he said.
Impacts of El Niño in Indonesia
If El Niño occurs, rainfall across Indonesia will decline significantly. This leads to reduced river water levels, drying wells, decreased crop yields, and heightened risks of forest and land fires.
“Directly, communities will experience a longer dry season. Soil will crack, plants will wilt easily, and the cost of meeting water needs will rise,” Hafizh explained.
Meanwhile, Professor of Agroklimatology at Universitas Gadjah Mada (UGM), Bayu Dwi Apri Nugroho, emphasized that while El Niño is a natural cycle, it has become more difficult to predict due to global climate change.
“Food crops such as rice and corn are highly vulnerable to water shortages. When water supply decreases, plant growth is disrupted, potentially leading to crop failure,” he noted, as reported by the UGM website.
These impacts not only reduce production but also hit farmers’ incomes. In extreme cases, the costs already invested in planting can be lost without any harvest.
Adaptation and Preparedness Are Key
Prof. Bayu stressed that the main approach should not be panic, but preparation. Several measures can be taken, including:
For the public:
- Conserve water usage
- Repair leaks in water installations
- Harvest rainwater
- Use water wisely
For farmers:
- Adjust planting schedules
- Select drought-resistant crop varieties
- Adopt water-efficient irrigation techniques
For the government:
- Strengthen clean water distribution
- Manage water reservoirs effectively
- Enhance land fire preparedness
- Provide early warnings down to the village level
“Communication between farmers and agricultural extension workers is key to successful on-the-ground adaptation. With accurate weather information and proper guidance, farmers can make better decisions,” he asserted.
According to Prof. Bayu, cross-sector collaboration is crucial in facing a potential major El Niño event. The government, research institutions, and universities must work together to provide accurate data and develop agricultural innovations.
“El Niño is not new, but its impacts could be even greater. The key lies in our readiness to anticipate it,” he concluded. (aan/rhd)
