Malang, SERU.co.id – The latest U.S. import tariff policy continues to disrupt the global trade landscape. Amid potential impacts on the rupiah exchange rate, Indonesian exports, and micro, small, and medium enterprises (UMKM/MSMEs), academics from Universitas Brawijaya (UB) are urging the Indonesian government to reevaluate its national trade strategy.
Pantri Muthriana Erza Killian, S.IP., M.I.E.F., Ph.D., a lecturer in the Faculty of Social and Political Sciences (FISIP) at UB, described this dynamic as both an opportunity and a challenge—particularly in reformulating Indonesia’s foreign trade strategy.
“The tariff policy announced by the U.S. government in April 2025 previously included universal and reciprocal tariffs. However, the U.S. Supreme Court declared that policy illegal because it was imposed without Congressional approval,” Erza stated on Saturday (February 28, 2026).
According to Erza, this cancellation fundamentally alters the legal basis of U.S. tariff policies. Although the U.S. government subsequently introduced a new 10% tariff under a different legal framework, the direction of protectionism remains consistent.
“The U.S.’s tendency toward unilateral policies weakens its commitment to the multilateral trading system and WTO principles. Under the WTO system, tariff changes should ideally occur through negotiation and consultation with trading partners,” he explained.
Furthermore, Erza views the invalidation of the old tariffs as opening opportunities for renegotiation by countries that previously agreed to trade cooperation under the pressure of high tariffs. With the legal threat now lifted, Indonesia has space to reassess existing agreements.
“The situation has changed. The government needs to review old agreements and ensure Indonesia’s position remains advantageous,” he added.
Impact on the Rupiah and Export Competitiveness
Meanwhile, Wildan Syafitri, Dr.rer.pol., an academic from the Faculty of Economics and Business (FEB) at UB, assessed that the cancellation of extreme tariffs—previously reaching 60 to 90 percent—sends a positive signal for global stability. Such high rates resembled a trade war and could disrupt international trade flows.
“With the new tariff in the 10% range, market pressures are more manageable. However, the impact on Indonesia still depends on the applied scheme. If Indonesia faces higher tariffs than other countries, export competitiveness could erode,” he explained.
Wildan clarified that the tariff burden ultimately falls on consumers in the destination country. Price increases can reduce demand and affect export volumes. Declining exports could pressure demand for the rupiah, potentially weakening the exchange rate.
“Conversely, if Indonesia’s tariffs are equivalent to those on other countries, relative competitive positioning is maintained. Stable or increasing exports would boost rupiah demand and support currency strengthening,” he elaborated.
UMKM and Indirect Effects
From the UMKM perspective, he noted that impacts are not always direct. Most Indonesian UMKM do not export directly to the U.S. but are affected through imported raw material prices, such as soybeans and wheat flour.
“If lower tariffs make imported raw materials cheaper, production costs could decrease and business margins increase. The food and processed sectors could potentially benefit,” he said.
However, Wildan stressed that national policy responses remain crucial. The government must strengthen competitiveness through product quality improvements, international certifications, streamlined licensing, and accelerated downstream processing of leading commodities to add value.
Strategic Momentum to Strengthen Bargaining Position
Amid global uncertainty, changes in U.S. tariff policy are not merely an external issue but a strategic opportunity. With certain commodities like critical minerals in high global demand, Indonesia is seen as having bargaining power that can be maximized.
“The government must be more proactive in reading shifts in U.S. policy direction to strengthen its global trade position. Reevaluating trade agreements, diversifying export markets, and reinforcing domestic industrial structures are key steps,” he concluded. (bas/rhd)
